Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 0.122439 0.137557 0.153869 0.172789 0.194143 0.217515 0.245056
2025-12-07 0.091642 0.110091 0.131412 0.157912 0.190021 0.227739 0.275516
2025-12-14 0.072113 0.092020 0.116496 0.148889 0.190766 0.243257 0.314334
2025-12-21 0.058017 0.078286 0.104683 0.141727 0.192614 0.260421 0.358223
2025-12-28 0.049454 0.070330 0.099032 0.141607 0.203570 0.291099 0.425249
2026-01-04 0.041534 0.062019 0.091640 0.137920 0.209029 0.315163 0.487464
2026-01-11 0.035832 0.056022 0.086640 0.136890 0.218191 0.346096 0.565543
2026-01-18 0.031593 0.051586 0.083303 0.137852 0.230564 0.383963 0.661535
2026-01-25 0.026679 0.045332 0.076172 0.131549 0.230059 0.400857 0.725634
2026-02-01 0.022487 0.039655 0.069159 0.124326 0.226765 0.412402 0.782409
2026-02-08 0.019476 0.035583 0.064305 0.120137 0.228176 0.432494 0.858736
2026-02-15 0.016890 0.031906 0.059630 0.115536 0.228039 0.449608 0.932419
2026-02-22 0.015374 0.030070 0.058214 0.117193 0.240875 0.495126 1.075347
2026-03-01 0.013377 0.027019 0.054037 0.112718 0.240578 0.514131 1.165986
2026-03-08 0.011890 0.024778 0.051154 0.110476 0.244683 0.543320 1.285979
2026-03-15 0.010612 0.022787 0.048504 0.108320 0.248642 0.572998 1.413781
2026-03-22 0.009869 0.021835 0.047916 0.110656 0.263293 0.629885 1.620810
2026-03-29 0.008957 0.020377 0.046009 0.109646 0.269851 0.668751 1.790573
2026-04-05 0.008263 0.019317 0.044855 0.110254 0.280541 0.719937 2.005167
2026-04-12 0.007721 0.018540 0.044249 0.112127 0.294838 0.783192 2.268363
2026-04-19 0.006883 0.016928 0.041412 0.107855 0.292151 0.800699 2.402966
2026-04-26 0.006090 0.015321 0.038370 0.102570 0.285801 0.807023 2.505742
2026-05-03 0.005502 0.014158 0.036294 0.099578 0.285423 0.830440 2.668162